In December of last year, when data were released showing an increase in the teen birth rate for the first time since 1991, there was quiet a stir, and rightly so.  Between 2005 and 2006, the rate increased by 3%, from 40.5 to 41.9 births per 1,000 girls age 15 to 19.  This translated into roughly 20,000 more teen births in 2006 compared to 2005.  Everyone from parents to policy makers worried whether the progress we had been making in preventing teen pregnancy for the last 15 years had stalled, or, worse yet, slipped into reverse.  In another month or two, we expect to have data for another year of teen birth rates, and many fear the rate will have increased again. 

Is this a big deal?  You bet. 

If the rates go up again between 2006 and 2007, it will signal that we have turned a corner, and not for the better, and so the anticipation grows around the expected release of these new data and what they will signal.  But let me remind us of the obvious--another increase of, say, 3%, as alarming as that may be, would be dwarfed by how high the rate already is.  In 2006, this rate translated into roughly 435,000 births to teen girls age 15 to 19.  Whether 2007 shows another 20 or 30 thousand more teen births, or even 20 to 30 thousand fewer teen births than in 2006, we are looking at a staggering number of children being born to parents who are still children themselves. 

So, we needn't wait until the next round of data to assure ourselves that teen childbearing is still a crisis, and, if the teen birth rate happens to go down, we better not kid ourselves that the crisis is over.