Given this, it is not surprising that one of the questions we are most frequently asked at the National Campaign is: Why? Why has the encouraging progress on teen childbearing begun drifting in the wrong direction? Based on the limited data that are available, the observations of those who work directly with teens nationwide, and researchers who study the issue, there are several clues that help explain the recent increase:

More sex, less contraception. Declines in sexual activity and increases in contraceptive use among teens - the two factors that drove the steep decreases in the teen pregnancy and birth rates beginning in the early 1990s - have apparently stalled out. In fact, although the changes have been small and not statistically significant, sexual activity increased and contraceptive use by sexually-active teens decreased among high school students between 2005 and 2007.

Less concern about HIV/AIDS. Observers have long believed that concern about HIV/AIDS has helped make young people - in particular, young men - more cautious about sexual activity and more vigilant about contraceptive use, and that these concerns contributed to the decline in teen pregnancies and births over many years. Now, however, there is evidence to suggest that concern among young people about HIV/AIDS is less pronounced. For example, a recent survey of those ages 18-29 who say they are personally very concerned about becoming infected with HIV declined from 30 percent in 1997 to 17 percent now. And according to the CDC, the proportion of high school students who say they have ever been taught about HIV/AIDS has decreased from a high of 92 percent in 1997 to 83 percent in 2007.

Reaching older teens. Recent National Campaign analyses suggest that nearly three quarters of the recent increase in teen births can be attributed to older teens (age 18 to 19) rather than younger teens (age 15 to 17). Efforts to prevent teen pregnancy have largely ignored older teens and recent increases in the teen birth rate underscore the need for additional, more creative interventions that reach older teens. In short, high school sex education may not "carry forward" into non-high school years.

Changes in the Makeup of the Teen Population. The overall increase in the national teen birth rate is due, in large part, to increases in the birth rate among teens of all racial and ethnic groups. Even so, a National Campaign analysis suggests that about a quarter of the three percent increase in the teen birth rate between 2005 and 2006 may be due to changes in the racial and ethnic makeup of the teen population overall.

Limited information about contraception. Abstinence should be stressed as the first and best option for teens. It is developmentally appropriate, widely supported by parents and teens, and the only certain way to prevent too-early pregnancy and parenthood. But we also know that those teens who are having sex and are not using contraception are the ones who get pregnant. The nation's emphasis on abstinence-only education in recent years may not have provided young people with adequate information about contraception or enough encouragement for sexually active teens to use contraception consistently and carefully. Every time.

Complacency and prevention fatigue. The years of good news about teen pregnancy may have led to complacency on the part of practitioners and parents. It may also have let policymakers and other funders turn their attention to other issues and away from preventing teen pregnancy. An informal survey by the National Campaign conducted in December 2008 found that in half of the 20 states that responded, teen pregnancy prevention programs received cuts in funding from public and/or private sources. Others reported flat funding. This situation may worsen as the full effects of the current economic downturn become apparent.

An "anything goes" culture. What about the role of prevailing social norms and popular culture? At present four in ten births to U.S. women are to unmarried women; for those in their early 20's, it is six in ten. One in five teens say they have electronically sent or posted a nude or semi-nude image of themselves; and the high-profile teen pregnancies of Bristol Palin and Jamie Lynn Spears were largely greeted as the latest in a long line of celebrity baby bumps-mildly interesting but, at the end of the day, no big deal. Perhaps such trends and factors help shape the social script for teens, suggesting that getting pregnant and starting a family in the teen years when you are single and may not have even finished high school is simply not that big a deal.

So what to do? Of course we need better sex education for young people. Of course we need more on-the-case parents who are helping their children figure out relationships, sex, family planning and more. Of course access to and affordability of contraceptive services remain critically important.

In addition to all of these things, my sense is that young people - in fact all of us - would also profit from some good, old-fashioned "straight talk." For example, when was the last time any of us heard any major public figure say things like:

• Babies need adult parents.

• "If it happens, it happens" is no way to start a family. And "I just never really thought about it" isn't either.

• Babies don't cement relationships; they often put great stress on them. Be sure you are in a solid relationship before you begin a family.

• Sex has meaning, risks and consequences. It's not a casual activity. Take it seriously.

• Babies don't give unconditional love; they demand it from the adults around them.

• Children do best when they are raised by parents who are committed to each other and to years of devoted parenting.

• To boys and men: Making babies doesn't make you a man. Being a devoted partner and father may.

• To girls: Sex won't make him yours and a baby won't make him stay.

• Personal responsibility and parental responsibility mean it's not just about "me" the adult - it's also about what's in the best interest of children, communities and future generations.

In short, getting pregnant or causing pregnancy, having babies, and starting families are perhaps the most important things we ever do, with generational effects. These major steps need to be thought about carefully, not stumbled into. We think and talk about so many less important things all the time: what's for dinner, March Madness brackets, what movie to see this weekend... Surely the event of when to become a parent, with whom and under what circumstances deserves at least the same amount of time and attention.

P.S. On this day focused on teen pregnancy, let's not forget the unacceptably high rates of unplanned pregnancy among women of all ages - particularly single 20-somethings. At present, fully 7 in 10 pregnancies among single women in their 20s are unplanned. We can and must do better.